ForecastMind
Markets/Maple Leafs vs. Ducks
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Maple Leafs vs. Ducks

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

37%YES
64%NO

Volume 24h

$779K

Liquidity

$301K

Bid / Ask

36% / 37%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

38%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Maple Leafs vs. Ducks

Full event →
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5
83%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5
65%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
55%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks
38%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5
32%

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

37% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

38% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 37%99%
Buy YES@ 37¢
Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 64¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Maple Leafs vs. Ducks" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $779K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Maple Leafs vs. Ducks." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1492916

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.