Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Hawks (-16.5)
Closed March 28, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$264K
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
20% / 22%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
41%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Hawks (-7.5)
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
42% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Trough probability
31% YES — lowest in period
Mar 29, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
54%
Mar 29, 2026
Biggest move: +22.5pp
31% → 54%
Mar 29, 2026
Current
54% YES (+22.5pp recent)
Mar 29, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-16.5)" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $264K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 28, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Spread: Hawks (-16.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1750515
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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Full price history for your own analysis.