Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Thunder (-19.5)
Closed March 28, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$104K
Liquidity
$87K
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Mar 26, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Mar 28, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 26, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 27, 2026
Biggest move: -31.9pp
32% → 0%
Mar 28, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Thunder (-19.5)" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $104K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on March 28, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Spread: Thunder (-19.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1732693
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