Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
Closes June 3, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$205
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
92% / 94%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
93%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
2026
21 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
93% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Current
93% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?" at 93% YES / 7% NO. In the last 24 hours, $205 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 93%, NO 7%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/687176
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