Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Closes July 20, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$406K
Liquidity
$1.1M
Bid / Ask
16% / 16%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
16%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2026
43 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
15% YES
Feb 27, 2026
Current
16% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 29, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $406K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on July 20, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/558934
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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