Market vs Expert vs Crowd
Three independent sources. When they agree, confidence rises. When they diverge, a mispriced market may be hiding in plain sight.
Note: "Forecasters" here means Metaculus superforecasters and Manifold Markets — not traditional opinion polls. "Crowd" is the weighted average of Kalshi, Metaculus, and Manifold. These systematic forecasters historically outperform polls, especially at 6+ month horizons.
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