Polymarket vs Kalshi — Accuracy Comparison
Kalshi was 54% more accurate than Polymarket in Sports (0 resolved markets compared).
polymarket
Mean Abs. Error
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kalshi
Brier Score
0.1155
Mean Abs. Error
—
Small sample (0 matched markets). Cross-venue comparisons require the same event to be tracked on both venues AND subsequently resolve. More data accumulates over time.
Other comparisons