Polymarket vs Metaculus — Accuracy Comparison
Not enough resolution data to compare polymarket vs metaculus. Import historical resolutions via scripts/import_kalshi_resolutions.py.
polymarket
Mean Abs. Error
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metaculus
Mean Abs. Error
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Small sample (0 matched markets). Cross-venue comparisons require the same event to be tracked on both venues AND subsequently resolve. More data accumulates over time.
Other comparisons