Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
1.40pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.40 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370733
This event has 14 active outcome markets. Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Eps: 16%, Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epst: 14%, Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Eps: 12%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~2%.
Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s isla
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
3% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-6.3%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this