Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$795
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
13% / 15%
Spread
2.30pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Ray McAdam win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
2026
12 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $795 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 2.30 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1400470
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