Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$166
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
0% / 0%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
2026
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $166 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1400473
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