Penguins vs. Lightning
Closes April 2, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$626K
Liquidity
$590K
Bid / Ask
40% / 41%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
41%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Penguins vs. Lightning" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $626K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Penguins vs. Lightning." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1515629
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5: 81%, Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5: 63%, Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5: 51%.
Penguins vs. Lightning
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
40% YES
Apr 2, 2026
Current
41% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 2, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this