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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Hurricanes vs. Utah
Share on X

Hurricanes vs. Utah

Closed April 11, 2026

Polymarket Price

45%YES
56%NO

Volume 24h

$823K

Liquidity

$508K

Bid / Ask

46% / 47%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

47%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Hurricanes vs. Utah" at 45% YES / 55% NO. In the last 24 hours, $823K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Hurricanes vs. Utah." Prediction market snapshot: YES 45%, NO 55%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598503

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Hurricanes vs. Utah: O/U 4.5: 83%, Hurricanes vs. Utah: O/U 5.5: 61%, Hurricanes vs. Utah: O/U 6.5: 51%.

Hurricanes vs. Utah: O/U 4.5
83%
Hurricanes vs. Utah: O/U 5.5
61%
Hurricanes vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
51%

Hurricanes vs. Utah

45%
Hurricanes vs. Utah: O/U 7.5
28%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 45%99%
Buy YES@ 45¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 55¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this