Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?
Closed March 14, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$2K
Bid / Ask
68% / 83%
Spread
15.50pp
Expert Signal
75%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?" at 75% YES / 25% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 75%. The bid-ask spread is 15.50 percentage points. The market closes on March 14, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 75%, NO 25%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1665593
This event has 6 active outcome markets. DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?: 100%, DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?: 75%, DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?: 21%.
DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this