ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?
Share on X

Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?

Closed March 14, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES
82%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

6% / 34%

Spread

28.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 28.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 14, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1665594

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?: 100%, DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?: 75%, DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?: 20%.

Topic Intelligence

Cross-Venue Intelligence1 venues

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 18%99%
Buy YES@ 18¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 82¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this