Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 30?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 30?

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 06:07 AM UTC

Closes March 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

15%YES

85%NO

Volume 24h

$36K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

14% / 17%

Spread

2.20pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-32.4pp

confidence40%

methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 30?

March

Full event →

above $1,700 on March 30?

100%

above $1,600 on March 30?

100%

above $1,900 on March 30?

99%

above $2,000 on March 30?

84%

above $2,100 on March 30?

14%

above $2,200 on March 30?

above $2,300 on March 30?

above $2,400 on March 30?

above $2,600 on March 30?

above $2,500 on March 30?

10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+8.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: +5.3pp

6% → 11%

Mar 30, 2026

Peak probability

16% YES — highest in period

Mar 30, 2026

Current

14% YES (-1.9pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 15%99%

Buy YES@ 15¢

-1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 85¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.6%

½ Kelly0.8%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 30?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $36K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 2.20 percentage points. The market closes on March 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1692110

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