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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 31?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

52%YES
49%NO

Volume 24h

$31K

Liquidity

$34K

Bid / Ask

48% / 50%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

50%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 31?" at 52% YES / 48% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 52%, NO 48%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1705514

Outcome Markets7 markets

This event has 7 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,0: 52%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 36%, price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,0: 10%.

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+34.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

15% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 30, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

43%

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: +8.5pp

37% → 46%

Mar 30, 2026

Peak probability

52% YES — highest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Current

50% YES (+5.5pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 52%99%
Buy YES@ 52¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 49¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this