Will GERB-SDS win between 50-54 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Closes April 19, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$72
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
6% / 11%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
9%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will GERB-SDS win between 50-54 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $72 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will GERB-SDS win between 50-54 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1738309
This event has 24 active outcome markets. Progressive Bulgaria (PB): 91%, GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026: 90%, 5: 45%.
GERB-SDS win between 50-54 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this