Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?
Closes April 19, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
24% / 28%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
26%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?" at 26% YES / 74% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 26%, NO 74%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1742067
This event has 24 active outcome markets. Progressive Bulgaria (PB): 91%, GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026: 90%, 5: 45%.
Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parlia
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this