Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Closes April 19, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
30% / 33%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
32%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 32%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1738483
This event has 24 active outcome markets. Progressive Bulgaria (PB): 91%, GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026: 90%, 5: 45%.
Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in th
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this