ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10?
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Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10?

Closed April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

71%YES
30%NO

Volume 24h

$322K

Liquidity

$318K

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10?" at 71% YES / 29% NO. In the last 24 hours, $322K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 71%, NO 29%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1749495

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+4.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

96% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Current

100% YES (+3.3pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 71%99%
Buy YES@ 71¢
Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.7%
½ Kelly0.8%
Buy NO@ 30¢

-1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this