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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 7?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 7?

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$14K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

6% / 7%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-69.2pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 7?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 7?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1808002

Outcome Markets11 markets

This event has 11 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 7?: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 7?: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7?: 100%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-7.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

15% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Biggest move: -6.0pp

14% → 8%

Apr 6, 2026

Current

8% YES (-6.0pp recent)

Apr 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 7%99%
Buy YES@ 7¢
Edge

+7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+7.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this