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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 8?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 8?

Closes April 8, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 8?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 8, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 8?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1817341

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,0: 56%, price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,0: 39%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 5%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-12.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

20% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Biggest move: -35.5pp

48% → 12%

Apr 8, 2026

Peak probability

48% YES — highest in period

Apr 7, 2026

Current

8% YES (-5.5pp recent)

Apr 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this