ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8?
Share on X

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8?

Closes April 8, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
39%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.2% ↓, ETH +0.1% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -0.2% ↓, ETH +0.1% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑
-0.2pp
Live compute05:56 AM

Polymarket Price

39%YES
61%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

35% / 38%

Spread

2.40pp

Expert Signal

39%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.7pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 2.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 8, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1817345

Outcome Markets-0.89 correlation8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,0: 56%, price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,0: 39%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 5%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+20.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Trough probability

2% YES — lowest in period

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: +33.8pp

2% → 36%

Apr 8, 2026

Peak probability

36% YES — highest in period

Apr 8, 2026

Current

32% YES (+6.7pp recent)

Apr 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 39%99%
Buy YES@ 39¢
Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 61¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this