ForecastMind
Markets/Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?
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Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?

Closes January 1, 2028

Polymarket Price

98%YES
2%NO

Volume 24h

$83K

Liquidity

$26K

Bid / Ask

98% / 98%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $83K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1818145

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?: 98%, Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 90%, Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?: 85%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

99% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Current

98% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Apr 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 98%99%
Buy YES@ 98¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%
½ Kelly8.3%
Buy NO@ 2¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this