ForecastMind
Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?

Closes May 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

51%YES
50%NO

Volume 24h

$66K

Liquidity

$39K

Bid / Ask

50% / 51%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

51%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $66K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823780

Outcome Markets11 markets

This event has 11 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?: 89%, Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?: 51%, December 31, 2026: 49%.

Topic Intelligence

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket51%anchor
Manifold

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Apr 2, 2026

Current

51% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 51%99%
Buy YES@ 51¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 50¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this