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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

46%YES
54%NO

Volume 24h

$12K

Liquidity

$65K

Bid / Ask

45% / 47%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

46%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?

December 2026

Full event →
$80,000 by December 31, 2026?
72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2
69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2
60%
$90,000 by December 31, 2026?
51%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2
47%
$100,000 by December 31, 2026?
40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2
36%
$110,000 by December 31, 2026?
30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2
26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2
19%
$120,000 by December 31, 2026?
19%
$130,000 by December 31, 2026?
16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2
14%
$140,000 by December 31, 2026?
13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2
11%
$150,000 by December 31, 2026?
11%
$180,000 by December 31, 2026?
7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2
7%
$190,000 by December 31, 2026?
7%
$200,000 by December 31, 2026?
5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2
5%
$250,000 by December 31, 2026?
5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 20
4%
$500,000 by December 31, 2026?
2%
$1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?
2%

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

48% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 2, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 3, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 7, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 8, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 10, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 11, 2026

Biggest move: -7.5pp

52% → 44%

Mar 2, 2026

Peak probability

56% YES — highest in period

Mar 8, 2026

Current

47% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 46%99%
Buy YES@ 46¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 54¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 46% YES / 54% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 46%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 46%, NO 54%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/701502

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