Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$18K
Liquidity
$88K
Bid / Ask
7% / 7%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
December 2026
25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
8% YES
Feb 25, 2026
Current
7% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1057916
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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