Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$26K
Liquidity
$74K
Bid / Ask
24% / 26%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
25%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
December 2026
26 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
28% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
20% YES — lowest in period
Mar 2, 2026
Biggest move: -7.0pp
28% → 21%
Mar 2, 2026
Current
25% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $26K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 25%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/701503
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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