Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$56K
Bid / Ask
18% / 20%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
19%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
December 2026
25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
17% YES
Feb 25, 2026
Current
19% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1339769
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.