Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Closes January 1, 2027
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6K
Liquidity
$100K
Bid / Ask
38% / 41%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
40%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
December 2026
25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
39% YES
Feb 25, 2026
Trough probability
32% YES — lowest in period
Mar 2, 2026
Biggest move: +7.0pp
32% → 39%
Mar 3, 2026
Peak probability
46% YES — highest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
41% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 40% YES / 60% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 40%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 40%, NO 60%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/701496
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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