Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$107K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
December 2026
26 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Feb 25, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-14.9%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1393068
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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