Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$51K
Bid / Ask
61% / 62%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
62%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
December 2026
25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
63% YES
Feb 25, 2026
Trough probability
54% YES — lowest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Biggest move: +8.0pp
56% → 64%
Mar 20, 2026
Peak probability
72% YES — highest in period
Feb 28, 2026
Current
62% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 62% YES / 38% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 62%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 62%, NO 38%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1339767
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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