Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?
Closes May 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$121K
Liquidity
$95K
Bid / Ask
5% / 5%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $121K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823783
This event has 18 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?: 91%, Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 2?: 89%, December 31, 2026: 62%.
Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Apr 2, 2026
Current
5% YES (+0.4pp recent)
Apr 2, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+7.5%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this