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Markets/Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?
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Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?

Closes May 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

23%YES
78%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$54K

Bid / Ask

21% / 24%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

23%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823801

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?: 88%, Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?: 49%, Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?: 23%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-29.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Trough probability

22% YES — lowest in period

Apr 2, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

40%

Apr 2, 2026

Biggest move: -18.0pp

40% → 22%

Apr 2, 2026

Current

22% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 23%99%
Buy YES@ 23¢
Edge

+2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 78¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this