Spread: Thunder (-21.5)
Closes April 5, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
59% / 60%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
60%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Thunder (-21.5)" at 60% YES / 40% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Spread: Thunder (-21.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 60%, NO 40%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1856505
This event has 6 active outcome markets. Spread: Thunder (-20.5): 62%, Spread: Thunder (-21.5): 60%, Spread: Thunder (-22.5): 56%.
Spread: Thunder (-21.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
60% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Current
60% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Apr 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this