ForecastMind
Markets/1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)
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1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

Closes April 5, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES
45%NO

Volume 24h

$421

Liquidity

$45K

Bid / Ask

52% / 58%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

55%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $421 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 55%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1871042

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. Spread: Thunder (-20.5): 62%, Spread: Thunder (-21.5): 60%, Spread: Thunder (-22.5): 56%.

Spread: Thunder (-20.5)
62%
Spread: Thunder (-21.5)
60%
Spread: Thunder (-22.5)
56%

1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

55%
Spread: Thunder (-23.5)
53%
Spread: Thunder (-24.5)
49%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 55%99%
Buy YES@ 55¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 45¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this