ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Thunder (-22.5)
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Spread: Thunder (-22.5)

Closes April 5, 2026

Polymarket Price

56%YES
44%NO

Volume 24h

$42K

Liquidity

$61K

Bid / Ask

57% / 58%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

56%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Thunder (-22.5)" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $42K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 56%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Spread: Thunder (-22.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1869265

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. Spread: Thunder (-20.5): 64%, Spread: Thunder (-21.5): 60%, 1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5): 57%.

Spread: Thunder (-20.5)
64%
Spread: Thunder (-21.5)
60%
1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)
57%

Spread: Thunder (-22.5)

56%
Spread: Thunder (-23.5)
54%
Spread: Thunder (-24.5)
52%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Apr 5, 2026

Current

56% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 56%99%
Buy YES@ 56¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 44¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this