Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Closes May 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.9pp above current market price; market at 68% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.9% ↑, VIX +2.3% ↑, Gold +0.6% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$57K
Liquidity
$55K
Bid / Ask
66% / 68%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
67%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?" at 68% YES / 32% NO. In the last 24 hours, $57K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 67%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 68%, NO 32%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1895140
This event has 9 active outcome markets. June 30: 78%, Military action against Iran ends on April 9,: 75%, May 31: 68%.
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
39% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
61%
Apr 6, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
56%
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: +22.5pp
39% → 61%
Apr 6, 2026
Peak probability
83% YES — highest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Current
65% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this