Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?
Closes April 21, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.0pp above current market price; market at 30% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +0.6% ↑, VIX +2.1% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$26K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
29% / 31%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
30%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?" at 29% YES / 71% NO. In the last 24 hours, $26K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 29%, NO 71%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1912777
This event has 9 active outcome markets. June 30: 79%, Military action against Iran ends on April 9,: 76%, May 31: 65%.
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 20
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
34% YES
Apr 9, 2026
Current
30% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this