Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15?
Closes April 15, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.8pp above current market price; market at 4% may be underpriced with macro signals showing ETH +0.7% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$24K
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919305
This event has 23 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 14: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Apr 8, 2026
Current
4% YES (-1.3pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this