Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14?
Closes April 14, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -5.5pp below current market price; market at 8% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -3.2% ↓, ETH -4.1% ↓, S&P -1.3% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$32K
Liquidity
$24K
Bid / Ask
7% / 8%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $32K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1908730
This event has 25 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 13: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 14: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+6.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this