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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13?

Closes April 13, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
38%FIS
6ppvs market 44%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -5.9pp below current market price; market at 44% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -1.9% ↓, ETH -2.9% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -1.9% ↓, ETH -2.9% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓
-5.9pp
Live compute03:29 AM

Polymarket Price

44%YES
56%NO

Volume 24h

$18K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

44% / 46%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

44%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13?" at 44% YES / 56% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 44%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 44%, NO 56%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891974

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-24.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

72% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Trough probability

45% YES — lowest in period

Apr 12, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

45%

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: -27.5pp

72% → 45%

Apr 12, 2026

Current

47% YES (+2.5pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 44%99%
Buy YES@ 44¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 56¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this