Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +5.3pp above current market price; market at 5% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +1.7% ↑, ETH +2.7% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$16K
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879426
This event has 38 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+7.5%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this