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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12?

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$26K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+25.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879428

Outcome Markets38 markets

This event has 38 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10: 100%.

price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12?

2%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+25.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+25.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this