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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?

Closes April 10, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
18%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.4% ↓, ETH +0.3% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -0.4% ↓, ETH +0.3% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑
-0.2pp
Live compute07:37 AM

Polymarket Price

19%YES
81%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$27K

Bid / Ask

17% / 18%

Spread

1.20pp

Expert Signal

19%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1846092

Outcome Markets35 markets

This event has 35 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 8?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 8?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 8?: 100%.

price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?

19%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 19%99%
Buy YES@ 19¢
Edge

+2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 81¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this