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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8?

Closes April 8, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
5%FIS
+2ppvs market 3%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +2.1pp above current market price; market at 3% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +1.4% ↑, ETH +1.9% ↑, S&P +0.6% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +1.4% ↑, ETH +1.9% ↑, S&P +0.6% ↑
+2.1pp
Live compute08:48 PM

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$28K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 8, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1817390

Outcome Markets32 markets

This event has 32 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 6?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 6?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 6?: 100%.

price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8?

3%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.1pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%
½ Kelly2.4%
Buy NO+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this