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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13?

Closed April 13, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
80%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC +0.1% ↑, ETH -0.2% ↓, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.1% ↑, ETH -0.2% ↓, S&P +0.2% ↑
+0.1pp
Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h07:48 AM

Polymarket Price

94%YES
7%NO

Volume 24h

$199K

Liquidity

$41K

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $199K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891971

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+57.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

43% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Trough probability

31% YES — lowest in period

Apr 7, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: +34.0pp

35% → 69%

Apr 8, 2026

Peak probability

100% YES — highest in period

Apr 13, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 13, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 94%99%
Buy YES@ 94¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly7.7%
½ Kelly3.8%
Buy NO@ 6¢

-7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 7.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this