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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13?

Closes April 13, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
89%FIS
6ppvs market 95%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -6.0pp below current market price; market at 95% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -1.9% ↓, ETH -2.9% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -1.9% ↓, ETH -2.9% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓
-6.0pp
Live compute03:28 AM

Polymarket Price

95%YES
5%NO

Volume 24h

$44K

Liquidity

$32K

Bid / Ask

94% / 95%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

95%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $44K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 95%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891969

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

99% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Current

95% YES (+0.8pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 95%99%
Buy YES@ 95¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly5.7%
½ Kelly2.8%
Buy NO@ 5¢

-5.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 5.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this