ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Warriors (-4.5)
Share on X

Spread: Warriors (-4.5)

Closed April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

30%YES
70%NO

Volume 24h

$115K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

42% / 43%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Warriors (-4.5)" at 30% YES / 70% NO. In the last 24 hours, $115K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Spread: Warriors (-4.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 30%, NO 70%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1924073

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Spread: Warriors (-2.5): 51%, 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5): 46%, Spread: Warriors (-3.5): 46%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-10.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Trough probability

40% YES — lowest in period

Apr 10, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Apr 9, 2026

Current

40% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 30%99%
Buy YES@ 30¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 70¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this